I think EV sales are going to explode in the coming years. Most forecasts are extremely conservative. Of course the more of a vested interest an organization has in fossil fuel, the more conservative the prediction. But even institutions that heavily favour the move to electric such as Bloomberg are still far more restrained than I predict.
Below is my prediction for EV sales percentage in the UK between now and 2025.
- 2017: 2%
- 2018: 3%
- 2019: 4%
- 2020: 8%
- 2021: 16%
- 2022: 32%
- 2023: 64%
- 2024: 80%
- 2025: 99%
This is just my guess and it’s very difficult to come up with a perfect prediction. But I think that as we have got to 2% already with only a few cars on the market, and with so much talk about EVs now, it seems inevitable that the growth will really accelerate in the coming years.
2020 seems to be the key year when lots of new models will be available, and by that time they should be price competitive with ICE cars, even before considering running costs.
Shortly after that, there should be another big boost as the manufacturing capacity for battery packs increases when big numbers of gigafactory style battery plants start popping up all over the world.
Between now and 2020 there should be significant growth, but there likely won’t be enough battery factories or different models of car available for it to go above 5%. Although I hope I’m wrong.
Even just today, Zap-Map said that they’re seeing an explosion of extra traffic on their website one day after the new London T-Charge (don’t know what the T stands for) comes into force.
So in conclusion, I have no real idea how quickly the change will happen, but what we do know is that it will be a lot faster than any of the predictions out there from mainstream organisations. The best prediction I’ve seen was from Pod Point CEO Eric Fairbairn. Obviously you would expect the CEO of a charge network to be optimistic, but that’s just what he genuinely thinks based on the information he has available to him.
He talked about this at an event recently and it was great to watch it and see someone just as passionate about this as I am, and someone who feels the same impatience at the pace of progress. We always want more immediately.